The Seller Tsunami
its not a massive wave...its a sprinkle...a rain shower
The “Seller Tsunami” Myth: Why Florida’s Business Listings Are at Historic Lows
For years, economic prognosticators have warned of a “Seller Tsunami”—a massive wave of Baby Boomer business owners hitting the market all at once. However, if you look at the actual data from the Florida MLS, the reality tells a much different story.
According to Michael Shea of Florida Business Broker Michael Shea - Transworld, the numbers aren’t just stable—they are at historic lows 00:20 Opens in a new window . Here is a look at why the predicted surge hasn’t happened and what it means for the current market.
By the Numbers: A 20-Year Decline
To understand the current scarcity, you have to look at where we started. Michael Shea notes that two decades ago, the Florida MLS consistently saw around 5,000 businesses for sale 00:05 Opens in a new window .
20 Years Ago: ~5,000 listings.
The Great Recession: ~3,800 to 4,000 listings 00:12 Opens in a new window .
Today: Under 3,000 listings—the lowest in history 00:19 Opens in a new window .
Why the Tsunami Never Made Landfall
If so many owners are reaching retirement age, why aren’t they selling? The answer lies in a decade of “economic trauma events.” From the housing bust and the Great Recession to COVID-19 and recent inflationary pressures, business owners have been forced to “reset” multiple times 00:43 Opens in a new window .
Unlike a traditional employee who can pivot to a new job for immediate cash flow, many business owners have had to:
Inject Personal Savings: Owners often dip into their own retirement or savings to keep the business afloat during crises 00:55 Opens in a new window .
Weather the Storm: Instead of selling at a low point, they stay in the business to try and rebuild value.
Close the Wealth Gap: Because their business is their retirement nest egg, they cannot afford to sell until they hit a specific “top dollar” figure to fund their later years 01:11 Opens in a new window .
The Harsh Reality for Buyers and Sellers
This lack of planning and awareness of economic cycles has created a “nightmare scenario” 01:04 Opens in a new window .
The 20% Rule: It is estimated that less than 20% of businesses currently on the market have the clean tax returns necessary for standard SBA financing 01:39 Opens in a new window .
For the younger generations—Gen X, Millennials, and Gen Z—looking to buy their way into entrepreneurship, the path is getting harder. If a business doesn’t have the paperwork for an SBA loan, buyers and sellers must get creative with seller financing or other alternative structures to bridge the gap 01:50 Opens in a new window .
Final Thoughts
The “Seller Tsunami” may eventually arrive, but for now, the market is defined by scarcity. For business owners, the message is clear: Planning is not optional. If you wait until you must sell to start preparing your books, you may find yourself stuck in a cycle you can’t afford to leave 01:16 Opens in a new window .
Michael Shea represents the Tampa Florida Transworld office. In business since 2005, he has established a reputation as a trusted business broker across Florida’s key markets- from Tampa to Orlando, Melbourne, and more. Over the past two decades, Michael and his team have closed over $1 Billion in sold business volume and presided over more than 450 transactions. His credentials include the IBBA Certified Business Intermediary®, and most recently, the prestigious Certified Exit Planning Advisor® (CEPA) credential. He is also a Florida Licensed Real Estate Broker and Business Brokers of Florida Board Certified Intermediary